Every US state is at "high risk" or worse from COVID-19, with Arkansas,Louisiana,Mississippi, and Florida at the highest "severe" level, according to data from a nonprofit.
Massachusetts, New York, and Minnesota are among the 23 states deemed "high risk," the third-highest level, by COVID Act Now's US COVID-19 risk and vaccine tracker, which mostly uses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
Texas, California, and Nevada are among 23 states deemed "very high risk," the second-highest level.
There are five risk levels. No state fell into the fourth or fifth risk levels.
COVID Act Now's risk calculations are determined by the number of new daily cases, infection rate, data quality, ICU capacity, percentage of people vaccinated, and people's vulnerability to COVID-19, including socioeconomic factors.
It uses a data tool from Surgo Ventures, a nonprofit with expertise in behavioral and data science that's partnered with Stanford, Harvard, and Georgetown universities, to calculate a state's vulnerability.
The 23 "high-risk" states are: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine.
The 23 "very-high-risk" states are: Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Alaska, Hawaii, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
Below is a breakdown of COVID Act Now's data on the four states at the "severe" level. "Positive test rate" is the percentage of COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing that comes back positive. It's a measure of COVID Act Now's confidence in the underlying data — more than 20% suggests inadequate testing.
Arkansas
New COVID-19 cases each day: 75.7 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.11
Positive-test rate: 11.9%
Population fully vaccinated: 37.7% (US average is 50.3%.)
ICU capacity used: 79% — 404 of 1,050 (38%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: higher than most states — 36% of the population in a "high-vulnerability" area
Louisiana
New COVID-19 cases each day: 115.7 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.24
Positive-test rate: 16.3%
Population fully vaccinated: 37.6%
ICU capacity used: 84% — 759 of 1,763 (43%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: higher vulnerability than most states — 43% of the population in a "high-vulnerability" area
Mississippi
New COVID-19 cases each day: 79.5 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.28
Positive-test rate: 22.1%
Population fully vaccinated: 35.2%
ICU capacity used: 86% — 366 of 856 (47%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: one of the most vulnerable states — 52% of the population in a "high-vulnerability" area
Florida
New COVID-19 cases each day: 127.3
Infection rate: 1.24
Positive test rate: 20.1%
Population fully vaccinated: 49.7%
ICU capacity used: 90% — 2,754 of 6,552 (42%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: one of the most vulnerable states — 62% of the population in a "high-vulnerability" area